Interactive Sovereign Rating Model
01Overview
The Interactive Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) is an analytical tool provided for use by third parties. The inputs and calculations of the tool exactly replicate those used in the rating process.
The SRM replicates the principal elements of Fitch Ratings’ Sovereign Rating Criteria and generates a score calibrated to the Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR scale. It is the starting point for how we assign sovereign ratings across all regions.To facilitate a full representation of the Sovereign Rating Criteria, the Qualitative Overlay adjustment framework is also included, although it is not the primary focus of the tool.
The tool can be used for all sovereigns currently rated by Fitch Ratings, including both Emerging and Developed Markets. Changes in Fitch Ratings’ sovereign coverage will be captured in quarterly updates to the tool.
A Fitch Connect subscription is required to access the tool.
03Resources
Sovereign Rating Criteria
Fitch Ratings’ criteria for assigning new and existing ratings to sovereign issuers and issues. The assignment of Fitch’s sovereign ratings reflects a combination of our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and a Qualitative Overlay.
Sovereign Rating Model Sessions One
The interactive model will contribute further to the enhanced transparency of Fitch’s Criteria by enabling users of sovereign ratings to input their own forecast assumptions across a range of quantitative variables and project the potential future direction of the model output and, in turn, the likelihood of rating upgrades or downgrades.
Sovereign Rating Model Session Two
Join Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer of Fitch’s Global Sovereigns Group, and Rob Shearman, Director, Model & Operational Risk Officer, provided an overview of the model, operating instructions and model navigation tips, along with illustrative examples to explain the various components and outputs.
04Releases
The full list of releases of this tool is as follows. Note:
- Updates to the version number reflect changes to the excel file structure &/or formulas.
- Updates to the version appendix date reflect the static dataset stored in the "inputActual" tab (rating reviews up-to and including this date are included).
v.1.0.0 20190904 - Release Date: 5 Sept 2019: first release
v.1.0.0 20191003 - Release Date: 4 Oct 2019: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.0.0 20200110 - Release Date: 14 Jan 2020: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.0.0 20200110b - Release Date: 20 Jan 2020: amended to correct the Qualitative Overlay notch adjustments for Angola stored in “inputActual” tab (to Public Finance = 0 and External Finance = +1, from Public Finance = +1 and External Finance = 0)
v.1.1.0 20200501 - Release Date: 06 May 2020: version update to accompany the revision to our Sovereign Rating Criteria on 27 Apr 2020, as well as an updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.1.1 20200804 - Release Date: 05 Aug 2020: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab and updated options for the central year of SRM input data (now 2019 / 2020 / 2021; previously 2018 / 2019 / 2020). There is also a minor bug fix to eliminate an erroneous VBA error message previously visible on first opening the file. This bug did not impact the input data, calculations or model output.
v.1.1.2 20200804 - Release Date: 09 Sept 2020: minor bug fix to resolve an issue affecting some users on Microsoft Office 2019. This bug did not impact the input data, calculations or model output. Grouped rows and columns are removed.
v.1.1.2 20201005 - Release Date: 07 Oct 2020: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.1.3 20210118 - Release Date: 19 January 2021: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.2.0 20210423 - Release Date: 27 April 2021: version update to accompany the revision to our Sovereign Rating Criteria on 26 Apr 2021, as well as an updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.2.1 20210810 - Release Date: 12 August 2021: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.2.2 20211027 - Release Date: 29 October 2021: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.2.2 20220202 - Release Date: 04 February 2022: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.3.0 20220407 - Release Date: 11 April 2022: version update to accompany the revision to our Sovereign Rating Criteria on 11 Apr 2022, as well as an updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab
v.1.3.1 20220805 - Release Date: 9 August 2022: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab and updated options for the central year of SRM input data (now 2021 / 2022 / 2023; previously 2020 / 2021 / 2022).
v.1.3.2 20221124 - Release Date: 28 November 2022: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab.
v.1.3.2 20230126 - Release Date: 31 January 2023: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab.
v.1.4.0 20230405 - Release Date: 6 April 2023: version update to accompany the revision to our Sovereign Rating Criteria on 6 Apr 2023, as well as an updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab.
v.1.4.1 20230630 - Release Date: 7 July 2023: updated dataset in the “inputActual” tab and updated options for the central year of SRM input data (now 2022 / 2023 / 2024; previously 2021 / 2022 / 2023).
Next update due in October 2023.