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Recession Risk, Inflation & Rates

Fitch Ratings provides an in-depth assessment of global economic prospects and macro risks, including inflation, interest rates, financial stability, and geopolitical and policy risks, through regular publications such as the GEO, 20/20 Vision and Risk Headquarters reports, as well as webinars, podcasts and in-person events.

Latest Commentary

01Insights

None available at this time

02Macro-Credit Environment Overview

Outlook 2023

Global Economic Outlook

Global growth is showing near-term resilience but with core inflation remaining stubbornly high, central banks will have to continue tightening policy in the coming months.

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03Videos

2023 Global Mining Sector Outlook Changed to Neutral from Deteriorating

2023 Global Mining Sector Outlook Changed to Neutral from Deteriorating

2023 Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook Mid-Year Update

Japan’s Demand for Foreign Bonds to Remain Weak

Interest Rates Drive UK Mortgage Affordability to Weakest Level Since 2008

Lower Inflation, Steady Home Loans to Improve Pre-Sales at Indonesian Homebuilders

Food Price Inflation Still High Despite Falling Input Costs

Short-Term US Debt Limit Increase Would Not Prevent Future Standoffs

Signs of Stabilising in China’s Property Market, but Not All Will Benefit

Higher Rates May Erode Coverage for APAC's Lower-Rated Corporates

Credit Suisse Takeover Will Profoundly Change the Swiss Bank Sector

China Preserves Fiscal Support to Safeguard Economic Recovery

U.S. Bank Fallout Extends to Various Non-Bank Financial Sectors

China 2023 Growth Forecast Revised Up to 5%

Credit Outlook 2023 - Deteriorating Outlook for EMEA Retail in 2023

Credit Outlook 2023 - Western European Banking Sector Outlooks Mixed for 2023

Credit Outlook 2023 - 2023 Global Economic Outlook

EMs Closer than DMs to Restoring Pre-Pandemic Fiscal Positions

Rapid Unwind of Supply Chain Disruption Cuts Goods Inflation

Recession Expected 2Q23, Strength of US Consumer Will Mitigate Severity

Rising Costs Erode Rating Headroom in UK Pub Sector

US Labor Remains Tight, Trend Likely Peaked as Median Unemployment Falls Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Impact of Rising Interest Rates on APAC Banks

Global Food Price Inflation Likely to Fall Sharply in 2023

EU Companies Still Face Gas Halt Risk Despite Nord Stream Restart

2022 Mid-Year Outlook - Sovereign Sector Outlook Revised to Neutral from Improving on Ukraine War Impact

2022 Mid-Year Outlook - Inflation, Rate Rises, Stagflation Undermine Sector Outlooks

Housing Market Slowdown Influences Canadian Bank, Sovereign Ratings

EU’s Russian Oil Ban to Redirect Trade Flows, Prop up Prices

Impact of Adverse Economic Scenario on EMEA Corporates

China 2022 Growth Forecast Cut Amid Covid-19 Outbreaks

U.S. to Recover All Pandemic-Driven Job Losses by Q3 2022

Higher Fuel Costs Could Test Resilience of India ABS Transactions

DM Banks Face Profit Challenges After Bounce-Back from Pandemic

High Gas Prices Could Slow Gains in Toll Road Leisure Traffic

Credit Brief - Structured Finance Exposure to Ukraine War Downside Risks

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04Podcasts

05Webinars

06Contacts

Richard Hunter
Leadership
Chief Credit Officer
+44 20 3530 1102 |

Brian Coulton
Chief Economist
+44 20 3530 1140 |